Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris is favored to win November’s election over Republican Donald Trump for the first time since Aug. 28, according to election forecaster Nate Silver’s latest modeling.

Harris leads Trump 48.9% to 46.1%, according to Silver’s latest polling average updated Friday. Harris is buoyed by leading five of the key battleground states, including Pennsylvania.

“Today marks the 3rd time so far in the election that the streams have crossed in the forecast — Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up and that will happen a lot when the forecast is so close to 50/50,” Silver wrote on his Silver Bulletin site.

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